The task is as daunting as it is complex. Its dimensions are at once social, technological, economic, and political. They are also global. People everywhere around the world play a role in shaping the energy future through their behavior, lifestyle choices, and preferences. And all share a significant stake in achieving sustainable outcomes.
The momentum behind current energy trends is enormous and will be difficult to check in the context of high levels of existing consumption in many industrialized countries; continued population growth; rapid industrialization in developing countries; an entrenched, capital-intensive and long-lived energy infrastructure; and rising demand for energy-related services and amenities around the world. Although wide disparities exist in per capita energy consumption at the country level, relatively wealthy households everywhere tend to acquire similar energy-using devices. Therefore, the challenge and the opportunity exists—in industrialized and developing countries alike—to address resulting energy needs in a sustainable manner through effective demand- and supply-side solutions.
The prospects for success depend to a significant extent on whether nations can work together to ensure that the necessary financial resources, technical expertise, and political will are directed to accelerating the deployment of cleaner and more efficient technologies in the world’s rapidly industrializing economies. At the same time, current inequities that leave a large portion of the world’s population without access to modern forms of energy and therefore deprived of basic opportunities for human and economic development must also be addressed.
This could be achieved without compromising other sustainability objectives, particularly if simultaneous progress is achieved toward introducing new technologies and reducing energy intensity elsewhere throughout the world economy. The process of shifting away from a business-as-usual trajectory will necessarily be gradual and iterative: because essential elements of the energy infrastructure have an expected life on the order of one to several decades, dramatic changes in the macroscopic energy landscape will take time. The inevitable lag in the system, however, also creates grounds for great urgency. In light of growing environmental and energy security risks, significant global efforts to transit to a different landscape must begin within the next ten years. Delay only increases the difficulty of managing problems created by the world’s current energy systems, as well as the likelihood that more disruptive and costly adjustments will need to be made later.
The case for urgent action is underscored when the ecological realities, economic imperatives, and resource limitations that must be managed over the coming century are viewed in the context of present world energy trends. To take just two dimensions of the challenge—oil security and climate change—current forecasts by the International Energy Agency in its 2006 World Energy Outlook suggest that a continuation of business-as-usual trends will produce a nearly 40 percent increase in world oil consumption (compared to 2005 levels) and a 55 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions (compared to 2004 levels) over the next quarter century (that is, by 2030). In light of the widely held expectation that relatively cheap and readily accessible reserves of conventional petroleum will peak over the next few decades and mounting evidence that the responsible mitigation of climate-change risks will require significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions within the same timeframe, the scale of the mismatch between today’s energy trends and tomorrow’s sustainability needs speaks for itself.
For this report, the Study Panel examined the various technology and resource options that are likely to play a role in the transition to a sustainable energy future, along with some of the policy options and research and development priorities that are appropriate to the challenges at hand. Its principal findingsin each of these areas are summarized below followed by nine major conclusions with actionable recommendations reached by the Study Panel.
