The multiple linkages between energy, the environment, economic and social development, and national security complicate the task of achieving sustainable outcomes on the one hand and create potentially promising synergies on the other.

The scope and scale of the sustainable energy challenge require innovative, systemic solutions as well as new investments in infrastructure and technology. Much of the infrastructure investment will need to happen anyway, but in most places the market and regulatory environment is not currently providing the feedback signals necessary to achieve a substantial shift in business-as-usual patterns. And by several measures, current worldwide investment in basic energy research and development is not adequate to the task at hand.12

Change will not come overnight. Essential elements of the energy infrastructure have expected life of the order of one to several decades. That means the energy landscape of 2025 may not look that different from the energy landscape of today. Nevertheless, it will be necessary within the next decade to initiate a transition such that by 2020 new policies are in place, consumer habits are changing, and new technologies are gaining substantial market share.

The problem of unequal access to modern energy services is fundamentally a problem of distribution, not of inadequate resources or environmental limits. It is possible to meet the needs of the 2 billion-plus people that today lack access to essential modern forms of energy (i.e., either electricity or clean cooking fuels) while only minimally changing the parameters of the task for everyone else. For example, it has been estimated that it would cost only US$50 billion to ensure that all households have access to liquid petroleum gas for cooking. Moreover, the resulting impact on global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use would be on the order of 1or 2 percent (IEA, 2004; 2006). Reducing current inequities is a moral and social imperative and can be accomplished in ways that advance other policy objectives.

A substantial course correction cannot be accomplished in the timeframe needed to avoid significant environmental and energy-security risks if developing countries follow the historic energy trajectory of already industrialized countries. Rich countries, which have consumed more than their share of the world’s endowment of resources and of the absorptive capacity of the planet’s natural systems, have the ability and obligation to assist developing countries in ‘leapfrogging’ to cleaner and more efficient technologies.

To succeed, the quest for sustainable energy systems cannot be limited to finding petroleum alternatives for the transport sector and low-carbon means of generating electricity—it must also include a set of responsible and responsive demand-side solutions. Those solutions must address opportunities at the city level (with special focus on the use of energy and water), new energy-industrial models (incorporating modern understanding of industrial ecology), and advanced mobility systems. In addition, it will be necessary to focus on opportunities at the point of end-use (cars, appliances, buildings, etc.) to implement the widest range of energy-saving options available. Most of the institutions that frame energy policy today have a strong supply-side focus. The needs of the 21st century call for stronger demand-side institutions with greater country coverage than is, for example, provided by the IEA with its largely industrialized country membership.

Given the complexity of the task at hand and the existence of substantial unknowns, there is value in iterative approaches that allow for experimentation, trying out new technologies at a small scale and developing new options. Science and engineering have a vital role to play in this process and are indispensable tools for finding humane, safe, affordable, and environmentally responsible solutions. At the same time, today’s energy challenges present a unique opportunity for motivating and training a new generation of scientists and engineers.

The experience of the 20th century has demonstrated the power of markets for creating prosperous economies. Market forces alone however will not create solutions to shared-resource problems that fall under the ‘tragedy-of-the-commons’ paradigm (current examples include international fishing, water and air pollution, and global warming emissions). 13 Governments have a vital role to play in defining the incentives, price signals, regulations, and other conditions that will allow the market to deliver optimal results. Government support is also essential where markets would otherwise fail to make investments that are in society’s long-term best interest; examples include certain types of infrastructure, basic research and development, and high-risk, high-payoff technologies.

References

DFID (Department for International Development). 2002. Energy for the Poor: Underpinning the Millennium Development GoalsLondon, United Kingdom.

^{IEA (International Energy Agency). 2006. World Energy Outlook 2006. Paris. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2006.asp.
——. 2005. Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries 2002-2003. International Energy Agency, Paris.}

^{IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press:Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf}

<sup>——. 2007b. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O. R. Davidson,P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, L. A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM040507.pdf 

Smith, K.R. 2002. ‘In Praise of Petroleum.’ Science 19(5): 589-600.

Smith, K.R., J. Rogers, and S. C. Cowlin. 2005. Household Fuels and Ill Health in DevelopingCountries: What Improvements Can Be Brought by LPG Gas? World LP Gas Association.Paris.

UN (United Nations). 2005. Energy Services for the Millennium Development Goals. United Nations. New York, New York.

UNDP (United Nations Development Program). 2006. Human Development Report 2006:Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty, and the Global Water Crisis. United Nations. New York, New York. http://hdr.undp.org/hdr2006/.

UNDP, UNDESA, and WEC (United Nations Development Program, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and World Energy Council). 2004. World EnergyAssessment. Overview, 2004 Update. United Nations. New York, New York.
——. 2000. World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. United Nations. New York, New York.

USDOE (United States Department of Energy). 2006. International Energy Outlook 2006.Energy Information Administration. DOE/EIA-0484(2007). Washington, D.C. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

WHO (World Health Organization). 2002. World Health Report: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life. Geneva: World Health Organization.</sup>

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